
- 2023ESOC Working Paper Series
The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 is associated with a rapid collapse of the Afghan economy. In lieu of official data, attempts…
- ESOC Working Paper #32 - News Media Reporting Patterns and our Biased Understanding of Global Unrest2022ESOC Working Paper Series
News reports of political violence are systematically compiled into large global conflict-event datasets used by academics, governments, and…
- 2022ESOC Working Paper Series
On August 15, 2021, a spokesperson of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, the Taliban’s self-
proclaimed state, declared on Twitter: “With the help of God, and the support of the nation, we are now in control of all parts of the country. We would like to congratulate our nation on this
big achievement.” After 20 years of conflict with U.S. and NATO coalition forces, no one
predicted the speed with which the Taliban would consolidate power and precipitate the collapse
of the Afghan government and military. - 2021Modern War Institute
In the past twenty years, during the US-led post-9/11 wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, a million members of the National Guard have deployed to those two combat zones. Throughout that period, soldiers and airmen from the Army and Air National Guard have also played a vital role in responding to a remarkably wide range of emergencies at home, from wildfires and hurricanes to the COVID-19 pandemic. Those dual missions—serving both as a key source of combat capability for the joint force and as a resource in times of need in American communities—set the National Guard apart as a military force. But that isn’t the Guard’s only fundamentally unique quality.
- 2021Modern War Institute
What lessons should the United States military take from twenty years of war in Afghanistan? Episode 35 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast focuses on US efforts in the Pech valley, where the United States waged an enduring counterinsurgency and counterterrorism campaign over many years. Though the conversation focuses on this valley, our guests argue that the Pech represents a microcosm of the broader US war effort in Afghanistan, and that the collapse of the Afghan government following the withdrawal of US forces from the country in August 2021 was foreseeable by looking at what happened in the Pech valley after US forces withdrew years earlier.
- 2021Modern War Institute
US Army Special Forces units continued to quietly operate in Afghanistan when conventional troops withdrew around 2015. These soldiers have worked closely with Afghan commandos and government partners to hold the hard-won and fragile stability. What happens when they leave the country this summer? How has this war continued unnoticed by the American people and what was the role of the media, the military, and policymakers in building a better public awareness of ongoing operations in Afghanistan?
- 2021Modern War Institute
Special operations forces have been a favorite national security tool in the post-9/11 era; wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have consumed their attention and kept the special operations community focused on counterterrorism and counterinsurgency missions. However, the release of the 2017 National Security Strategy pivoted the United States’ strategic focus from terrorism to near-peer competitors China and Russia. What will be the role of special operations forces (SOF) in this era of great power competition? Where is SOF falling short in the shift to meet this new focus area?
- 2020Modern War Institute
In this episode of the Irregular Warfare Podcast, Shawna Sinnott and Kyle Atwell discuss the history and context of proxy and partner warfare in the Middle East with Ambassador Ryan Crocker and Dr. Eli Berman. This is the second installment of a two-part discussion on fighting irregular warfare through proxy forces.
- 2019The Owl in the Olive Tree
President Trump’s announcement of further troop reductions in Afghanistan raises a substantive question. To what end are US forces engaged at all…
- 2019Economics and Politics
In emerging democracies, elections are encouraged as a route to democratization. However, not only does violence often threaten these elections,…
- 2019Woodrow Wilson School Featured Article
We are pleased to share the Woodrow Wilson School’s new press release concerning findings from our recently completed study,…
- 2018Empirical Studies of Conflict Project
This Report presents evidence on the relationship between violent conflict and the industrial organization of firms and entrepreneurial decision-…
- 2018The World Bank
One-fifth of the world's population lives in countries affected by fragility, violence and conflict, impeding long-term economic growth. However,…
- 2018Princeton University Press
The way wars are fought has changed starkly over the past sixty years. International military campaigns used to play out between large armies at…
- 2017Rand Labor and Population
After billions of dollars and decades of investment in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere, practitioners, policymakers and academics are still…
- 2017Daedalus
Military commanders in wartime have moral obligations to abide by international norms and humanitarian laws governing their treatment of…
- 2017
To provide evidence about which programs best foster stability in fragile and conflict-affected areas we systematically review the relationship…
- 2017United States Institute of Peace Special Report
This USIP Special Report, written by Ethan B. Kapstein, addresses the lack of clarity on which programs best foster stability in fragile and…
- 2016War on the Rocks
- 2016American Political Science Review
Findings in political science, economics, and security studies suggest that during civil war aid can be used to help establish control of…