Terrorizing Democrats: Political Institutions and Terrorists’ Targeting Decisions

Publication Year
2011
Publisher
IGCC Working Paper
Author
Abstract

What explains why some terrorist groups attack civilian targets frequently while others do so only very rarely? While civilians are a particularly appealing target because they are easy to attack, many groups go to great lengths to avoid them. In this paper I examine what targets groups are likely to attack given the government from which they wish to gain political concessions. Based on a coercive model of violence, I argue groups attack those segments of society that apply the most pressure on a government. In general terms, the most influential segments of society for any government are its minimum winning coalition and selectorate. After surveying the literature on a large number of different regime types, I conclude that civilians face the highest risk of being attacked in democracies because, unlike forms of non-democracy, the minimum winning coalition and selectorate in democracies are composed of civilians. Using a dataset on more than 30,000 attacks worldwide, I find that civilians in democracies face an increased risk of attack.

Publication Topic
Violence
Country
Publication Type
Other Working Paper