Modest, Secure and Informed: Successful Development in Conflict Zones (NBER)

Publication Year
2013
Publisher
NBER Working Paper Series
Abstract

Most interpretations of prevalent counterinsurgency theory imply that increasing government services will reduce rebel violence. Empirically, however, development programs and economic activity sometimes yield increased violence. Using new panel data on development spending in Iraq, we show that violence reducing effects of aid are greater when (a) projects are small, (b) troop strength is high, and (c) professional development expertise is available. These findings are consistent with a "hearts and minds" model, which predicts that violence reduction will result when projects are secure, valued by community members, and implementation is conditional on the behavior of non-combatants.

Citation

Working Paper 18674, http://www.nber.org/papers/w18674

Publication Topic
Violence
Infrastructure
Country
Publication Type
Other Working Paper