
- 2023ESOC Working Paper Series
Recent years have seen growing concerns expressed by political leaders throughout the west about rising Chinese “influence” around the world. Yet…
- 2023Modern War Institute
It’s been described as the “terrorist’s dilemma”—the trade-offs between maintaining security and exercising command and control that terrorist organizations must make. But how can counterterrorism campaigns be designed to exploit that dilemma? What do government agencies and organizations charged with countering terrorist threats need to know about those pressures? And how should an understanding of the dilemma inform the development of counterterrorism policy?
- 2023ESOC Working Paper Series
Explanations for the well-established relationship between mining and conflict interpret violence near resource extraction sites as part of…
- 2023ESOC Working Paper Series
The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 is associated with a rapid collapse of the Afghan economy. In lieu of official data, attempts…
- 2022ESOC Working Paper Series
How do foreign agents, representing countries or other political actors, exert political influence in another country? While considerable…
- 2022ESOC Working Paper Series
What do sovereign bond investors know about the risks and costs of violent conflict? Do they rationally incorporate available information, or are…
- ESOC Working Paper #32 - News Media Reporting Patterns and our Biased Understanding of Global Unrest2022ESOC Working Paper Series
News reports of political violence are systematically compiled into large global conflict-event datasets used by academics, governments, and…
- 2022ESOC Working Paper Series
Social media has become an outlet for extremists to fundraise and organize on, potentially
leading to deadly consequences. While governments deliberate on how to regulate this challenge,
some social media companies have removed creators of offensive content—deplatforming. - 2022ESOC Working Paper Series
On August 15, 2021, a spokesperson of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, the Taliban’s self-
proclaimed state, declared on Twitter: “With the help of God, and the support of the nation, we are now in control of all parts of the country. We would like to congratulate our nation on this
big achievement.” After 20 years of conflict with U.S. and NATO coalition forces, no one
predicted the speed with which the Taliban would consolidate power and precipitate the collapse
of the Afghan government and military. - 2022ESOC Working Paper Series
The world faces a forcible displacement crisis. Across the world, tens of millions of individuals have been
forced from their homes and across international boundaries. The causes and consequences of refugee
flows are, therefore, the subjects of significant social science inquiry. - 2022International Crisis Group
Yemen is a country of about 30 million people. It occupies the southwestern tip of the Arabian Peninsula and borders Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the shipping lanes of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
- 2022International Crisis Group
Climate fragility afflicts more and more countries in the world today. Flood and drought, as well as changes in multi-year and seasonal variability, have become major risk factors.
- 2022International Crisis Group
Yemen is caught up in overlapping emergencies that have defied mediation. In the north, bloody battles rage for control of Marib governorate between the internationally recognised government of Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi and the Huthi rebels who ousted him in 2015. Hadi’s government prevents fuel from entering the Huthi-held port of Hodeida, and a tug of war over the riyal, Yemen’s currency, has led to its collapse in nominally government-controlled cities.
- 2021Political Violence At A Glance
Among its many deleterious effects on social well-being, violent conflict—including widespread criminal violence—can undermine economies by…
- 2021ESOC Working Paper Series
Anti-personnel landmines are one of the main causes of civilian victimization in conflict-affected
areas and a significant obstacle for post-war reconstruction. Demining campaigns are therefore a
promising policy instrument to promote long-term development. - 2021Lawfare
The Wall Street Journal’s Facebook Files series resumed last week, revealing that the platform took action against an online campaign to set up a new right-wing “Patriot Party” after the Jan. 6 insurrection. Earlier this month news outlets reported that a number of former employees excoriated the company’s content moderation practices in their departure emails.
- 2021International Crisis Group
As Nicolás Maduro forces dissidents to flee Venezuela, exiles have come to play important roles influencing both the opposition’s political strategy and international policy toward Caracas. Analysis of social media suggests that exile can lead opposition members to use strident rhetoric and advocate aggressive ideas more often than domestic counterparts.
- 2021International Crisis Group
Africa is especially vulnerable to climate change, as millions are already experiencing record heat, extreme precipitation and rising sea levels. Increasingly, the security implications of changing weather patterns are visible in deadly land resource disputes between farmers and herders across the continent – including in the continent’s most populous country, Nigeria.
- 2021International Crisis Group
Colombia’s vast forest is fast receding, partly because guerrillas and criminals are clearing land for farming, ranching and other pursuits. These unregulated activities are causing both dire environmental harm and deadly conflict. Bogotá should take urgent steps to halt the damage.
- 2021Modern War Institute
In the past twenty years, during the US-led post-9/11 wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, a million members of the National Guard have deployed to those two combat zones. Throughout that period, soldiers and airmen from the Army and Air National Guard have also played a vital role in responding to a remarkably wide range of emergencies at home, from wildfires and hurricanes to the COVID-19 pandemic. Those dual missions—serving both as a key source of combat capability for the joint force and as a resource in times of need in American communities—set the National Guard apart as a military force. But that isn’t the Guard’s only fundamentally unique quality.